We Are In an Economic War

 

By Germanico Vaca

Most Americans are not even aware that BRICS nations have signed an accord and are moving away from the U.S. dollar by agreement, and that is a huge game changer for trade. It could have significant ramifications for global demand for U.S. treasuries and the dollar itself. If major economies like the BRICS countries, and China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia stop using the dollar for oil and commodities trading, the global demand for the dollar could decrease significantly, putting downward pressure on its value.

Part 1: Crypto Market Dynamics in the Current Economic War

1. The Strategic Role of Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies have been misunderstood as decentralized, borderless financial tools that challenge traditional monetary systems. However, this perception is largely a façade. The reality is that all cryptos are traded in US dollars, so it does not matter what the name of the dog, you still paying with US dollar for the DOG. Here’s how cryptos align with global strategies:

• For the U.S.:
Donald Trump, supported by over-ambitious DOGE/WEF operatives, appears to view cryptocurrencies as a potential savior for the American economy. This perspective ignores the looming collapse of U.S. dollar demand as BRICS transitions to its own payment systems and Saudi Arabia shifts to yuan-backed bonds, ending the petrodollar era.

Trump believes Bitcoin and Ethereum could serve as "global, neutral currencies," maintaining U.S. financial influence beyond sovereign control. However, this strategy risks creating a speculative bubble, exacerbating U.S. debt, inflation, and counterfeiting. The outcome would likely be unprecedented hyperinflation and a devastating economic collapse.

• For China:
China views cryptocurrencies as both a threat and an opportunity. While cryptos undermine centralized control, they also provide a tool to weaken confidence in the dollar. Since cryptos are traded in U.S. dollars, China can strategically profit from their volatility while positioning its digital yuan, potentially backed by gold, as a stable alternative post-collapse.

• For Russia and BRICS:
Russia may use cryptocurrencies to bypass sanctions and operate outside U.S.-dominated banking systems. BRICS nations could quietly leverage cryptos as a transitional tool, accumulating them as reserve assets until unified financial mechanisms are established. This strategy neutralizes the U.S. dollar’s influence while redirecting capital to productive economic activities.

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2. Timeline and Strategic Opportunities

The January–July 2024 crypto market forecast aligns with historical speculative cycles, providing a roadmap for potential events:

• January–March 2024:
Trump, Musk, and other influencers (Ramaswamy, Thiel, and Krishna) may push Congress to approve deregulation, bolstering cryptos and creating the illusion of an economic boom. However, this speculative surge, fueled by debt, would ignore long-term production and manufacturing needs, instead inflating a dangerous bubble.

• March 17, 2024:
If Russia dumps U.S. securities, the dollar weakens, pushing investors toward cryptos, precious metals, and commodities. China could strategically short cryptos to trigger a mid-year collapse or prop them up temporarily to destabilize U.S. financial systems further.

• June–July 2024:
A sharp decline in cryptos is likely, driven by over-leveraged positions, profit-taking, and potential regulatory actions. This collapse would devastate retail investors and erode confidence in decentralized systems, creating political and economic fallout.

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3. Narratives of Key Players

• For the U.S.:
Trump aims to position cryptos as "neutral global currencies" to counter the digital yuan and BRICS alternatives. However, leveraging tools like Palantir to manipulate market sentiment and track crypto flows could unleash a beast that even U.S. systems cannot control.

• For China:
China’s strategy includes promoting the digital yuan as a stable alternative, influencing global perceptions of cryptos at critical moments, and strategically dumping U.S. securities and cryptos to manipulate prices.

• For BRICS:
BRICS nations might quietly accumulate Bitcoin and Ethereum to leverage them against the dollar. Their broader strategy focuses on transitioning from speculative assets to productive capital investments, exploiting Trump’s economic miscalculations.

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Part 2: Financial Outcomes in the Economic War

1. Peter Thiel’s Role

Peter Thiel and Palantir play a shadow role in shaping U.S. strategies, particularly through data-driven financial analysis and AI tools:

• Thiel as a Strategist:
Thiel’s focus on decentralized technologies aligns with his geopolitical strategies. His investments in Bitcoin and Ethereum position him as a central figure in U.S. efforts to maintain Western financial influence, despite their inherent risks.

• Palantir’s Influence:
Palantir’s AI-driven tools likely analyze global financial flows, crypto trends, and geopolitical risks, offering the U.S. a tactical advantage. However, China’s advanced AI models may already counteract these efforts, exposing the vulnerabilities in Thiel’s plans.

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2. Financial Outcomes to Watch

• Dollar Decline:
As BRICS nations reduce reliance on the dollar, demand for U.S. treasuries will decrease, driving up interest rates and weakening U.S. global financial dominance.

• Rise of the Petroyuan:
Saudi Arabia and OPEC nations adopting the yuan for oil trades could trigger a global shift, increasing reliance on China while risking overextension.

• Global Inflation and Market Instability:
A declining dollar would fuel inflation in import-heavy nations, leading to social unrest and political instability. Cryptos might temporarily act as safe-haven assets.

• Crypto Boom and Collapse:
An initial crypto rally followed by a collapse would destabilize retail investors globally, triggering political backlash and stricter regulations.

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3. Strategic Questions

• Are the U.S., China, and BRICS holding significant crypto assets, and could they weaponize a market collapse?
• If Palantir drives U.S. strategies, how might China counter its influence?
• Should nations pivot toward decentralized assets, or are centralized alternatives like the digital yuan inevitable winners?

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Conclusion
The current economic war places cryptocurrencies at the center of global financial strategies. While the U.S. may attempt to leverage cryptos against China and BRICS, this approach carries immense risks, including speculative market dependencies and vulnerability to manipulation. Ultimately, the battle over cryptos reflects broader shifts in global power, with far-reaching implications for financial stability and geopolitical influence.