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viernes, 24 de enero de 2025

The real cost of mass deportation

 


by Germanico Vaca

It seems to me that the narrative of massive deportation has nothing to do with governing for the good of the American people. Little analysis has been done about the real cost of mass deportation and when people have tried to explain they have been yelled and silenced, even in Congress. But the media is also complicit in all the lies that Trump spews. For years he has been lying that "other countries" are sending prisoners, mental patients from mental institutions etc. Yet nobody has bothered to go and investigate if any nation has sent even one such person. The truth is that there has never been any such program, project or event. People come from their own will, and sadly many sell everything they have to come to the United States. Now, the media and Congress have not bothered to conduct hearings and investigate at least what "massive deportations" are going to cause. People in this administration are not being smart about anything. So, I am requesting as a citizen of the United States to hold hearing about these facts, and I request that you consider my Immigration plan, which addresses the issue of mass deportation and will save billions and will actually help create billions in revenue.

Cost Analysis of Mass Deportation
1. Arresting 11 Million Undocumented Workers
Cost per Arrest: $25,000 (according to the sheriffs office)
Total Cost for Arresting 11 Million:
$25,000 × 11,000,000 = $275 billion
2. Housing Costs for Detained Individuals
Daily Cost per Person: $120–$250
Duration of Housing: Assuming 1 year on average
Low-End Estimate:
$120 × 365 days × 11,000,000 = $481.8 billion
High-End Estimate:
$250 × 365 days × 11,000,000 = $1.003 trillion
3. Court Costs for Deportation Hearings
Current Backlog: 3.7 million cases = 4 years at current pace
Adding 11 Million Cases: 14.7 million cases in total
Time to Process at Current Pace: 16 years
Cost of Immigration Judges:
Current Judge Caseload: 700 per year per judge
Judges Needed: 14.7 million ÷ 700 cases/year = 21,000 judges
Cost Per Judge (Annual Salary, Staff, Offices): ~$250,000
Total Annual Cost of Judges: 21,000 × $250,000 = $5.25 billion per year
Total Cost Over 16 Years: $84 billion
4. Transportation Costs for Deportation
Cost Per Ticket: $1,000
Total Cost for 11 Million Deportations:
$1,000 × 11,000,000 = $11 billion
5. Other Costs
Facilities Construction: Building detention centers for 11 million people is equivalent to creating entire cities.
Average Cost Per Facility (Capacity for 10,000 People): $500 million
Number of Facilities Needed: 11,000,000 ÷ 10,000 = 1,100
Total Facility Cost: 1,100 × $500 million = $550 billion
Food Costs (Beyond Detention):
$10 per meal × 3 meals/day × 365 days × 11 million = $120 billion annually (for those housed in detention for extended periods).
Estimated Total Cost for Mass Deportation
Arrest Costs: $275 billion
Housing Costs: $481.8 billion–$1.003 trillion
Court Costs: $84 billion
Transportation Costs: $11 billion
Facility Construction: $550 billion
Food Costs: $120 billion/year
Grand Total (Low-End): $1.52 trillion
Grand Total (High-End): $2.04 trillion+
Alternative Plan: Generating $2.2 Trillion
My Immigration plan would emphasize integrating undocumented workers into the economy through legalization efforts, as opposed to deportation. Here’s a breakdown of potential revenue:
Taxes from 11 Million Workers:
Annual Tax Contribution per Worker: $10,000 (combined income, Social Security, etc.)
Total Annual Tax Revenue:
$10,000 × 11,000,000 = $110 billion per year
New Workers Added to Economy:
Economic Multiplier Effect: $3 for every $1 in wages
Total Economic Activity Generated: $33,000 × 11,000,000 = $363 billion annually
Savings from Avoided Costs of Deportation:
Using the lower estimate of deportation costs ($1.52 trillion), redirecting these funds would contribute significantly to infrastructure, AI development, and education.
Projected Revenue Over 20 Years:
Tax Revenue: $110 billion/year × 20 years = $2.2 trillion
Economic Activity: $363 billion/year × 20 years = $7.26 trillion
Comparison: Deportation vs. Integration
Deportation Costs: $1.52–$2.04 trillion, with no economic benefits.
Integration Benefits: $2.2 trillion in tax revenue and $7.26 trillion in economic activity over 20 years, plus long-term growth.
Conclusion
Mass deportation is not only prohibitively expensive but also economically destructive. Redirecting those funds toward legalization, workforce integration, and advanced technology development (such as AI) offers a more effective and profitable solution. This strategy aligns with constitutional principles, avoids backlash, and ensures long-term national prosperity.
There is a much better way that in fact it will not cost the United States a dime but bring a lot of money. Please consider this

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