OPEN SOURCE ECONOMIC MODELING

 

OPEN SOURCE ECONOMIC MODELING

by Germanico Vaca

I have to be honest. The ineptitude and incompetence of Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Peter Thiel are disappointing. But so, is the lack of patriotism and ingenuity of the US Congress, US Senate, and people from all walks of life, I must ask Jeff Bezos how is it possible that you have an entire system to run easily some models and economic scenarios and do nothing about it? What about Mark Zuckerberg why are they not funding AI for transparent governance? Do they need to be invited to develop some balls and courage to do something good for the nation? What about U.S. universities why are you not doing anything? So, I am asking you to participate in building an open-source AI economic model to expose political incompetence while offering a constructive alternative, here’s a strategic approach:

1. Open-Source Initiative on GitHub

• I am willing to sacrifice my time and publish an AI model code on GitHub under an open-source license.
• I am inviting contributions from universities, research institutions, and AI developers worldwide.
• Ensure full transparency by making all data sources, assumptions, and methodologies publicly available.

2. University Collaboration & Competition

• Announce a nationwide university challenge to develop and refine the model.
• Offer an incentive (private funding, sponsorships, grants) for the best implementations.
• Partner with major AI and economic research labs (MIT, Stanford, Harvard, etc.).

3. Public Dashboard for Real-Time Policy Analysis

• Develop a live AI dashboard displaying economic projections of different policies.
• Allow real-time comparison between Trump’s policies and alternative strategies.
• Provide interactive simulations where users can test different tax rates, trade policies, and spending models.

4. Media & Public Awareness

• Use social media, blogs, and YouTube to explain findings in simple terms.
• Engage investigative journalists and economic experts to amplify the project.

5. Government & Institutional Adoption

• Present the AI model to Congress, Federal Reserve, and economic think tanks.
• Push for adoption in policymaking by demonstrating how AI-driven decisions outperform conventional models.
• Secure independent audits to ensure credibility.

If we do not do this Donald Trump is going to destroy this nation. So, we need to act. Bottom of Form

 

Proposal for AI-Driven Economic Modeling Study for Congress

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1. Introduction

The rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and computational modeling offer unprecedented opportunities to analyze economic policies with high precision. This proposal seeks congressional support for a federally funded AI-driven economic modeling study to assess the effects of various financial policies, including the economic impact of the Trump administration's proposals. The study will be a joint effort involving the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, the Pentagon, and independent economic research institutions.

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2. Objectives

The primary objectives of the study include:

• Analyze the Impact of Trump’s Economic Policies: Assess tax cuts, tariffs, deregulation, and cuts to federal programs.
• Explore Alternative Economic Scenarios: Model scenarios such as progressive taxation (3-5% increase on the wealthy), corporate tax reforms, and infrastructure investment.
• Evaluate U.S. Dollar Stability: Study the impact of BRICS economic strategies, cryptocurrency proliferation, and global shifts in reserve currency preferences.
• Assess the Economic Effects of Federal Job Cuts: Determine the impact of reduced federal employment and spending on GDP and economic stability.
• Model Comprehensive Immigration Policy Outcomes: Compare the long-term economic benefits of integration versus deportation of undocumented immigrants.
• Identify Growth Strategies: Simulate high-impact infrastructure investments, workforce development, and innovation policies.

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3. Methodology

The study will employ advanced AI-driven economic models that integrate real-time data and historical trends. Key methodological components include:

• Multi-Scenario AI Simulations: AI models will run economic scenarios based on various policy options, predicting short-term and long-term effects.
• Big Data Integration: Real-time economic indicators, government expenditures, trade balances, and employment data will be incorporated.
• Predictive Analytics & Machine Learning: The AI will refine its models based on evolving economic conditions.
• Sector-Specific Analysis: AI models will examine the impact on key industries such as manufacturing, technology, healthcare, and finance.

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4. Expected Outcomes

The study will provide policymakers with:

• Data-Driven Policy Recommendations: Clear insights into which policies promote sustainable economic growth.
• Quantified Risks & Benefits: Economic trade-offs of major policy decisions, including tax reforms and tariffs.
• Strategic Insights for U.S. Global Competitiveness: Guidance on countering BRICS initiatives and strengthening the U.S. dollar.
• Public Transparency & Economic Forecasting: An open-access dashboard for real-time updates on economic trends.

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5. Budget & Funding Requirements

The study will require funding for:

• AI Development & Computing Resources: High-performance computing clusters and AI model development.
• Data Acquisition & Analysis: Access to global economic data, labor statistics, and trade information.
• Expert Personnel: Economists, AI specialists, policy analysts, and financial researchers.
• Pilot Implementation & Reporting: Initial results within 12 months, with ongoing updates.

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6. Conclusion

This AI-driven economic modeling study presents a transformative opportunity for Congress to make informed, data-backed policy decisions. By leveraging AI for economic forecasting, the United States can proactively adapt to global economic shifts, optimize fiscal strategies, and ensure long-term national prosperity.

The Major Flaw in Cryptos: A Dollar Dependency

 

The Major Flaw in Cryptos: A Dollar Dependency

by Germanico Vaca

When Bitcoin was created and the following cryptocurrencies that followed the biggest promise was that Cryptos were going to be the salvation and were a "Hedge" Against Fiat Collapse. The premise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies was to create a decentralized, deflationary currency immune to government manipulation or fiat collapse. Most fans of Bitcoin often praise the Bitcoin cap, but that cap is meaningless because Bitcoin is traded in dollars. All cryptos are still priced, traded, and understood primarily in U.S. dollars. This creates a paradox: if the dollar collapses, the entire valuation system for cryptocurrencies collapses with it.

Dollar-Centric Trading, every cryptocurrency trade in major exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, and others is fundamentally based on fiat conversion rates. Even crypto pairs like BTC/ETH indirectly rely on the dollar because their valuations are tied to it. If the dollar collapses, there’s no stable unit of account to measure crypto value, rendering it meaningless.

The Derivatives Debt and Its Ticking Time Bomb

In Washington DC and the halls of Congress, the debate and battle are for an artificial “debt ceiling”. A new budget and debt ceiling agreement must be reached by March 14 or there will be a government shutdown. But such a debt ceiling is meaningless because Donald Trump's meme coin and his wife Melania's meme adventures have shown the world how to destroy the United States by issuing meme coins. Indeed, since all digital coins and cryptos are traded in dollars. I do not mean to offend anyone but I must ask. Is Elon Musk that stupid? Are all congressmen and senators so ignorant that they have not seen what is happening? It is time that they realize two things:

1. The Hidden Debt Crisis
• The U.S. dollar system is a usury system backed not by tangible value but by an unfathomable mountain of debt. For as long as the US sold bonds the system worked, but nobody wants to buy bonds anymore. BRICS nations account for 29% of GDP with a population of 3,4 billion people (consumers) and they are working hard to decouple from bond buying that means the spigot is running dry and the US dollar is under attack when the real National debt is not only the Federal debt of $36 trillion that the US falsely claims as the NATIONAL DEBT, which real amount is 575 trillion dollars of real US debt (towns, cities, counties, states, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, Mortgages, commercial debt, unfunded liabilities etc) plus when factoring in derivatives debt which nobody knows how much really is. But I added the derivatives debt of 150 banks and the amount is ($202,510,748,000,000. trillion mostly the debt from the stock market gambling), dwarfs global GDP and underscores how fragile the system is.
• Cryptos, far from being a solution, have added an entirely new speculative layer to this instability because they increase the derivatives bubble.
2. Crypto’s Role in Expanding Debt
• Cryptos have introduced extreme speculative bubbles, like the $62 billion surge in Trump meme coins and 777 million dollar overnight increase in the dilution of the US dollar. These bubbles are effectively diluting the dollar's perceived value by creating massive financial activity that is unbacked by any real economic output.
• Worse, the trillions in crypto market cap are not treated as debt obligations within the financial system. This creates untracked liabilities that amplify systemic fragility.
• All cryptos are bought, sold, and traded in US dollars, so they are creating digital dollars outside the parameters of the fiat currency but hence diluted all value for the US dollar. The real value of the US dollar is now parallel to el Sucre of Ecuador in 1998 and is being devalued daily by an amount paralleling and reciprocal to the cryptos markets. Whatever the name of cryptos maybe they are meaningless, they are all creating US debt for they are traded in dollars.

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Trump’s Crypto Investment Proposal: A Dangerous Amplifier

1. $16 Trillion in Cryptos
• Trump’s proposed investment in cryptos (if it materializes) could artificially inflate the crypto market cap while injecting even more unbacked dollars into the system.
• Instead of addressing the derivatives debt crisis, this would accelerate the devaluation of the dollar because these trades are essentially based on speculative value with no underlying real assets.
• This shall be reason enough to call article 25 and remove Trump from the presidency for mental incompetence and ineptness because it is obvious that through sheer ignorance of how cryptos would destroy the economy he has set out to carry out the destruction of the United States economy.
2. A Mirage in Digital Form
• The speculative nature of cryptos means that their value is highly volatile and detached from any intrinsic worth. If the dollar collapses, so does the entire infrastructure of crypto trading and valuation. Without a dollar or equivalent fiat to measure against, Bitcoin at "$250,000" becomes meaningless because it cannot be exchanged for tangible goods or services.

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The Unsustainability of the U.S. Dollar System

1. Fiat Currency Mechanism
• Historically, fiat currencies like the dollar are supposed to rely on mechanisms like bond issuance to back their value and manage inflation.
• The Federal Reserve bypassing these mechanisms by printing money out of thin air (quantitative easing) has already strained the system. Adding crypto speculation exacerbates this by creating phantom dollars—financial activity with no real backing.
2. The Crypto Market as a Shadow Dollar System
• Cryptocurrencies have become a pseudo-shadow dollar system where speculative gains feed into the broader economy without any regulatory oversight or recognition as debt. This is akin to a hidden leverage bubble that grows until it bursts.

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The Ultimate Collapse Scenario

If the U.S. dollar collapses, here’s what happens to cryptocurrencies:

1. No Unit of Account
• Without the dollar (or a replacement fiat), cryptos lose their pricing mechanism. Bitcoin at "$250,000 or a million" is meaningless if the dollar no longer exists.
2. Exchange Infrastructure Fails
• Major crypto exchanges rely on fiat gateways (like USD, EUR, etc.) for withdrawals and trading. If these gateways collapse, crypto liquidity evaporates, and coins become inaccessible digital artifacts.
3. Speculative Value Vanishes
• Cryptos derive value largely from speculative demand. In a global financial crisis, speculative demand would evaporate as people prioritize food, shelter, and tangible goods over digital assets.

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Conclusion: A Digital Mirage

Cryptocurrencies, while marketed as an alternative to fiat, are deeply tied to the fiat system—particularly the U.S. dollar. If the dollar collapses, cryptos don’t save the system; they collapse alongside it. The speculative bubbles created by cryptos are not just unsustainable but actively contributing to the devaluation of the dollar by creating unregulated, unbacked financial activity.